card counting, blackjack, basic strategy, casino

 Card Counting at the Blackjack table can give you a mathematical gambling advantage of 2% over the casino. Learn how here and learn Basic Strategy here FOR FREE.

 

Blackjack is the only game at the Casino that is beatable. Why? Blackjack is not a game of just chance. Blackjack is a game of skill and chance. The more skillful a player is, the more successful he will be at Blackjack.

How is Blackjack a game of skill?

What happens during one hand of Blackjack directly affects the outcome of future hands. With other games like Craps or Roulette, what happens during any one roll of the dice or spin of the wheel has absolutely no bearing on future rolls or spins.

Mathematically, the distinction that is being made is that between dependant and independent trials.

Independent Trials

Independent trials are not affected by past events nor do they affect future events. For instance, Craps is a game of independent trials. Every roll of the dice is independent of previous rolls. But what if you have a situation where you roll 10 "sixes" in a row? Don't bet on another "six" coming up again, right? Wrong! The dice don't have a memory. The odds of a "six" coming up on the next roll are the same as they were one roll ago, or ten rolls ago. Every roll is independent of past rolls. The fact that there has been ten sixes in a row has absolutely no bearing on the odds of rolling a six on the next roll of the dice. Each roll is independent of previous rolls.

Dependant Trials

Blackjack is a game of dependant trials. Every hand dealt is both dependent on previous hands and affects the outcome of future hands. For instance, if during a particular hand, four tens are dealt, there are now four tens less in the deck that will not be dealt during future hands. This hand has directly affected the probability of a ten being dealt in subsequent hands. Since there are fewer tens remaining in the deck, the odds of drawing a ten are diminished.

Why is it important that Blackjack
is a game of Dependant Trials?

If each new Blackjack hand is dependant to some extent on previous hands, then we can use the results of previous hands to guide our decisions during the current hand.

Example:
I have an urn filled with 10 black balls and 10 white balls. I give you a chance to win some money. You tell me what color of ball you will blindly pull from the urn. If you are right, I will pay you $10.00. If you are wrong, you pay me $10.00. Which color should you choose? Black? White? It doesn't matter. There is a 50/50 chance that you will pull a black ball from the urn and there is a 50/50 chance that you will pull a white ball. You choose white and bet me $10.00 that you will pull a white ball. You reach into the urn and in fact pull out a white ball winning $10.00 from me.

Now I offer you the same bet. Which color should you choose? The answer is clearly black. There are 10 black balls and only 9 white balls remaining. The odds of pulling a white ball on the next trial is 9/19 (9 white balls and 19 balls in total remaining). The odds of pulling a black ball on the next trial is 10/19 (10 black balls and 19 balls in total remaining). Therefore, you would choose black as the odds of pulling a black ball are greater than those for pulling a white ball on the next trial. You have just used information about a previous trial to maximize your odds of winning during future trials.

Like the example, Blackjack is a game of dependant trials. If you utilize information about what cards are dealt during previous hands, you can use this information to maximize your odds of winning during the current hand. How does one "utilize information about what cards were dealt during previous hands"? The answer is . . .




card counting, blackjack, basic strategy, casino
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card counting, blackjack, basic strategy, casino